Arnold Ventures’ Evidence & Evaluation team supports rigorous, policy-relevant research that helps decision-makers understand which programs and policies improve outcomes in the real world. In 2025, the team awarded more than 40 new research grants to support high-quality evaluations across several policy areas, including Education, Career Pathways, Housing, Infrastructure, and Public Finance. Together, these studies aim to strengthen the evidence base for programs and policies that can be implemented and scaled by policymakers at the local, state, and federal levels.
Several of the newly funded studies focus on Higher Education and Career Pathways, reflecting growing concern about the cost of higher education and increased interest in alternatives that offer clearer labor market returns. Public skepticism about college affordability has risen in recent years. According to the Pew Center, “about eight-in-ten adults (79%) say colleges and universities are doing a fair or poor job of keeping tuition costs affordable.” At the same time, enrollment in vocational and career-oriented programs — especially at public 2‑year institutions — has increased substantially, according to the National Student Clearinghouse. Together, these trends have intensified demand for evidence about which education and training pathways most effectively support students’ transitions into stable employment and economic independence.
One newly funded study will examine increasingly prevalent forms of career and technical education in Wake County, North Carolina. Over the past decade, the Wake County Public School System has invested in career training opportunities, including career academies and industry-recognized certifications (IRCs). University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill researcher Steven Hemelt and his colleagues are conducting a study to assess the impacts of modern career academies and IRCs on students’ further education prospects, career pathways, and economic stability.
“At a time when over 1 in 10 young adults between the ages of 16 and 24 years old in North Carolina are neither working nor engaged in schooling, amassing evidence on potentially productive pathways to an economically engaged, socially vibrant young adulthood is critical,” said Hemelt. “These opportunity youth represent a key population for policymakers interested in strengthening transitions to young adulthood and improving the well-being of local communities.”
The study will examine how participation in career academies and IRCs affects students’ postsecondary enrollment, employment, and earnings. The researchers will follow Wake County students from ninth grade through early adulthood, covering graduating classes from 2008 to 2021. By examining outcomes across this extended time horizon, the research aims to shed light on how high school-based career pathways shape students’ educational and economic trajectories. Alongside other AV-funded studies awarded in 2025, this work will help inform policies designed to support successful transitions to adulthood — particularly for young people navigating an increasingly complex education and labor market landscape.
A snapshot of other grants funded in 2025 is included below. These examples represent a subset of grants that were committed in 2025 and are intended to illustrate the breadth of work supported by the Evidence & Evaluation team; they do not constitute a comprehensive summary of AV’s grantmaking. A complete set of grant summaries is available on this page.
For more information on current funding opportunities, please see the Strengthening Evidence and Building Evidence RFPs. Both RFPs support rigorous, causal research designed to expand the evidence base for promising social policies and programs. Letters of interest for both RFPs are due by March 6, 2026. Funding for causal research related to the criminal justice system is offered through a separate RFP with a rolling deadline.
Career Pathways
QED of Career Technical Education Certification in Nevada
Grant Recipient: RAND Corporation
Principal Investigator: Christine Mulhern, RAND
Kata Mihaly, RAND
Term: 2025 – 2027
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate the impact of earning career and technical education (CTE) certifications for high school students in Nevada. CTE certifications — common across the United States — allow students to earn college credit and are designed to strengthen academic and workforce outcomes by shaping whether and where students enroll in college, their field of study, time to degree, and degree completion, as well as signaling skills to employers. The study will leverage approximately 57,000 students in 6 graduating cohorts (2019−2025) within Nevada’s public school system who have completed a CTE certification. Using a regression discontinuity design based on the CTE GPA cutoff, the study will estimate the effects of CTE certification on postsecondary enrollment and completion, employment, and earnings outcomes up to 6 years after graduation.
QED of Ohio Career-Technical Assurance Guides
Grant Recipient: RAND Corporation
Principal Investigator: Christopher Doss, RAND
Term: 2025 – 2027
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate the impact of career-technical assurance guides (CTAGs) for students enrolled in Ohio high schools between 2011 and 2017. CTAGs are statewide articulation agreements that allow students to earn college credit at Ohio public institutions for specific Career and Technical Education (CTE) coursework completed in high school. Using a regression discontinuity design based on end-of-course exam scores, the study will estimate the impact of receiving college credit via a CTAG course on obtaining a credential in a related field 6 years after high school graduation and employment and earnings outcomes measured 7 years after high school graduation.
QED of the Cristo Rey Network
Grant Recipient: Washington University in St. Louis
Term: 2025 – 2027
Principal Investigator(s): Jason Jabbari, Washington University in St. Louis
Shaun M. Dougherty, Boston College
Lauren Russell, University of Pennsylvania
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate the Cristo Rey Network, a system of college preparatory high schools serving low-income students. Cristo Rey schools incorporate a Corporate Work-Study Program, through which students work 1 day per week at a local corporation, into a school-based curriculum focused on professional skills, career readiness, and college preparation. This study will examine the impact of attending a Cristo Rey Network school among graduating classes from 2017 to 2025. Using a regression discontinuity design based on an admissions cutoff, the study will estimate the impact of Cristo Rey schools on postsecondary enrollment and completion, employment, and earnings.
QED of the Jobs & Education for Texans (JET) Grant Program
Grant Recipient: University of Texas at Austin
Term: 2025 – 2027
Principal Investigator(s): Matt Giani, University of Texas at Austin
Brian Jacob, University of Michigan
Madison Andrews, University of Texas at Austin
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate the Jobs & Education for Texans (JET) grant program. Since 2016, the Texas Workforce Commission has provided JET grant funding to school districts and community colleges to invest in equipment for career and technical education (CTE) programming. The study will examine the impact of receiving a JET grant on tenth-grade students enrolled in Texas high schools since 2016. Using difference-in-differences and instrumental variables approaches, the study will estimate the program’s effects on CTE program completion, postsecondary enrollment and completion, and employment outcomes after high school graduation.
Long-Term Follow-Up of the RESEA RCTs
Grant Recipient: Actus Policy Research, LLC
Principal Investigator: Eileen Poe-Yamagata, Actus Policy Research
Marios Michaelides, Actus Policy Research
Peter Meuser, Actus Policy Research
Term: 2026 – 2029
Summary: This project is a long-term follow-up of 5 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the impact of the Reemployment Services and Eligibility Assessment (RESEA) program across 5 states. The RESEA program, established in 2015, is the largest job-search assistance intervention targeting Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants. The program requires UI claimants to meet with job counselors to undergo a review of their compliance with UI work search requirements and receive services that would aid their job search.
This study builds on previous RCTs across 5 states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin), which randomly assigned thousands of UI claimants to either a treatment group that received RESEA services or to a control group that did not receive services. The study will measure impacts on UI receipt and earnings through 5 years after random assignment.
Higher Education
QED of 2018 Developmental Education Reforms in California
Grant Recipient: University of California, Irvine
Term: 2025 – 2027
Principal Investigator(s): Di Xu, University of California, Irvine,
XunFei Li, University of California, Irvine
Loris Fagioli, Irvine Valley College
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate developmental education reforms enacted by California Assembly Bill (AB) 705. Traditionally, students were placed in developmental education sequences based on their standardized placement exam scores, often leading to placements below their actual skill level and reducing academic momentum. Shifting away from traditional standardized placement tests, AB 705 required community colleges to maximize the likelihood that students are placed into transfer-level English and math courses unless strong evidence suggests otherwise. Using interrupted time series and staggered difference-in-differences designs, the study will measure the short- and long-term impacts of AB 705 on transfer-level course completion in the first year, associate’s degree completion, and transfer to a 4‑year institution.
RCT of Puente in California
Grant Recipient: WestEd
Principal Investigator: Noman Khanani, WestEd
Laura Lara-Brady, WestEd
Katie D’Silva, WestEd
Term: 2026 – 2034
Summary: This project is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of the Puente program in California. Puente currently operates in 67 community colleges in California with the goal of increasing transfer and graduation rates for educationally underserved students. The program provides support across three major components: instruction, counseling, and mentorship.
This study will randomize approximately 1,600 eligible students from 10 community colleges to a treatment group that will receive Puente services or a control group that will receive business-as-usual institutional support. The study will measure the program’s impact on short- and long-term outcomes, including credit accumulation, GPA, transfer to a four-year institution, and degree receipt six years after random assignment.
RCT of the HAIL Scholarship program
Grant Recipient: President and Fellows of Harvard College
Principal Investigator: Susan Dynarski, Harvard University
Elizabeth Burland, University of Connecticut
Stephanie Owen, Colby College
Term: 2025 – 2028
Summary: This project is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of the High Achieving Involved Leaders (HAIL) Scholarship program. This program offered an upfront guarantee of 4 years of free tuition and fees at the University of Michigan (UM) in Ann Arbor to high-achieving, rising high school seniors in Michigan from 2015 to 2022.
In this study, approximately 10,400 students from 689 Michigan high schools were randomly assigned to either a treatment group, which received the offer in the fall of their senior year, or a control group, which did not receive the offer until after students had applied to UM, had been admitted, and had completed financial aid forms. This study will measure the program’s impact on enrollment and completion of a bachelor’s degree from a highly selective college within 6 years of high school graduation.
Long-Term Follow-Up of the Saga High-Dosage Tutoring RCTs
Grant Recipient: University of Chicago
Principal Investigator: Monica Bhatt, University of Chicago
Jonathan Guryan, Northwestern University
Salman Khan, University of Chicago
Term: 2026 – 2028
Summary: This project is a long-term follow-up of 2 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate the impact of Saga Education’s high dosage tutoring (HDT) program in Chicago. The HDT program provides eligible high school students with daily in-school math tutoring for 50 minutes per day in a 2‑to‑1 student-to-tutor ratio for an entire academic year.
This study builds on 2 previous RCTs, which randomly assigned approximately 5,300 students across 15 Chicago high schools to a treatment group that received Saga’s HDT services or to a control group that did not receive the HDT services. The study will evaluate the program’s impact on college enrollment and degree receipt within 6 years of expected high school graduation.
Long-Term Follow-Upof the Rural Early College Network RCT
Grant Recipient: University of North Carolina at Greensboro
Principal Investigator: Eric Grebing, University of North Carolina at Greensboro
Term: 2025 – 2033
Summary: This project is a long-term follow-up of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of the Rural Early College Network (RECN) in Indiana. The RECN provides targeted early college supports to ninth- and tenth-grade students in a pathway-within-school model: a structure in which early college opportunities are embedded within traditional high schools without creating a separate school or campus. Students also receive targeted early-college supports, including campus visits, intensive advising, a peer group focused on postsecondary readiness, and guidance connecting college coursework to their post-high school plans.
This study builds on a previous RCT of RECN in which 1,310 eligible students in 14 Indiana high schools were randomized to either the treatment group that received an offer to join the early college program or the control group that did not receive an offer. The study will measure the impact of the program on the number of college credits earned in high school, postsecondary enrollment at high school graduation, postsecondary/workforce credential attainment, and persistence and degree completion over 4 years.
Long-Term Follow-up of the Westchester ASAP RCT
Grant Recipient: MDRC
Principal Investigator: Colleen Sommo, MDRC
Cynthia Miller, MDRC
Term: 2026 – 2033
Summary: This project is a long-term follow-up of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of the Viking ROADS (Resources for Obtaining Associate Degrees and Success) program at Westchester Community College. The program replicates the City University of New York’s Accelerated Study in Associate Programs (CUNY ASAP) model, offering a comprehensive, integrated package of academic, personal, and financial supports to low-income students.
This study builds on a previous RCT, which randomly assigned 574 Westchester Community College students to either a treatment group eligible for Viking ROADS (288 students) or a control group receiving usual services (286 students). The study will measure the program’s impact on degree receipt and annual earnings 6, 8, and 10 years after random assignment. The study will also include a meta-analysis of ASAP studies in Ohio, New York City, and Westchester, New York.
Health
RCT of Medicaid Reenrollment Support
Grant Recipient: Emory University
Principal Investigator: Rebecca Myerson, Emory University
Term: 2025 – 2027
Summary: This project is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of an outreach program in Wisconsin designed to avert and remediate loss of Medicaid coverage for procedural reasons among eligible individuals. The program connects beneficiaries with free live help from a Navigator who can address common barriers to successful renewal, including uncertainty about Medicaid eligibility and questions about responding to income or asset verification requests.
The study will randomize approximately 288,000 eligible individuals to 1 of 3 groups: (i) a treatment group that will receive live outreach and assistance, (ii) a treatment group that will receive pre-recorded outreach, or (iii) a control group that will not receive outreach. The study will measure impacts on successfully renewing Medicaid coverage within 3 months and maintaining continuous coverage over 12 months.
Housing/Homelessness
QED of Los Angeles’ Unpermitted Dwelling Unit Ordinance
Grant Recipient: University of Southern California
Principal Investigator: Jorge De La Roca, University of Southern California
Term: 2025 – 2027
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate Los Angeles’ Unpermitted Dwelling Unit (UDU) Ordinance, which passed in 2017 to offer an easier pathway to legalize informal housing units. The policy reduced permitting costs, streamlined compliance, and targeted multifamily property owners.
The study will first estimate the number of UDUs using city administrative data and satellite data. Then, using a difference-in-differences design, the study will estimate the effects of the UDU Ordinance on affordable housing preservation as measured by the number of UDU demolitions.
Long-Term Follow-Up of the Denver Social Impact Bond RCT
Grant Recipient: Urban Institute
Principal Investigator: Devlin Hanson, Urban Institute
Sarah Gillespie, Urban Institute
Term: 2026 – 2030
Summary: This project is a long-term follow-up of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of the Denver Supportive Housing Social Impact Bond Initiative (Denver SIB). Denver SIB is a supportive housing program for chronically homeless individuals. In addition to housing, Denver SIB provides comprehensive care from multidisciplinary teams including clinical social workers, case managers, peer specialists, psychiatrists, and nurses.
This study builds on a previous RCT, which randomly assigned 1,093 eligible individuals to a treatment group that was referred to Denver SIB supportive housing providers to receive services or a control group that continued to receive community services as usual. The study will measure the program’s impact on health care utilization and associated Medicaid costs 5 and 10 years after random assignment.
Regulatory Policy
RCT of the Air Quality and Economic Mobility Data on Affordable Housing
Grant Recipient: National Center for Civic Innovation Inc
Principal Investigator: Peter Bergman, University of Texas at Austin
Jonathan Colmer, University of Virginia
Ian Hardman, University of California, Berkeley
Term: 2025 – 2026
Summary: This project is a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of an intervention providing neighborhood-level economic and environmental information during housing searches on AffordableHousing.com. The intervention will embed information about economic mobility and air quality directly on the website’s rental listings.
The study will randomly assign approximately 60,000 AffordableHousing.com users into one of three groups: (i) a treatment group receiving economic mobility information, (ii) a treatment group receiving air quality information, or (iii) a control group receiving no additional information. The study will measure the impact of the intervention on economic mobility and environmental scores of the neighborhood where individuals live 12 months after randomization.
Public Finance
QED of the Earned Income Tax Credit
Grant Recipient: University of Massachusetts Amherst
Principal Investigator: Christopher Boone, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Ethan Kaplan, University of Maryland
Term: 2026 – 2028
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate the impact of the earned income tax credit (EITC) on employment and wages. The EITC is a refundable tax credit aimed at reducing poverty and promoting labor force participation. The study will combine difference-in-differences with a geographic discontinuity design, leveraging variation in EITC generosity across states, to estimate effects on individual-level employment and wages two years after policy adoption.
QED of State Child Tax Credit Policies on Employment Outcomes
Grant Recipient: Boston University
Term: 2025 – 2027
Principal Investigator(s): Justin White, Boston University
Zachary Parolin, University of Oxford
Rita Hamad, Harvard University
Summary: This project is a quasi-experimental study to evaluate the impact of state Child Tax Credit (CTC) policies rolled out between 2006 and 2024. CTC policies provide income support through either refundable or non-refundable tax credits to families with children and vary in generosity and eligibility across states. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design, the study will leverage state-level variation in CTC policies to estimate the policy’s impacts on employment and work intensity as measured by the number of hours worked.
