Online and Sports Betting
Arnold Ventures is supporting rigorous, causal research and policy infrastructure to help decision-makers act on evidence about sports betting.
Legalized sports betting has expanded rapidly across the U.S., but critical questions remain about its financial, social, and behavioral impacts — and about which policy choices reduce harm.
As AV Co-Founder and Co-Chair John Arnold has argued, the shift to always-on, online, phone-based betting, and the proliferation of “micro-bets” (e.g., wagering on the next pitch), has changed sports gambling and increased risks for addiction and related financial harm. At the same time, prediction markets are expanding access to sports-related event contracts, raising urgent questions about which rules apply, who enforces them, and how consumer protections differ across systems. AV is investing in high-quality research and policy capacity so decision-makers have clear facts and can set durable guardrails, particularly at the state level where gambling has long been regulated.
John Arnold on The Dangers of Prediction Markets
Arnold Ventures Co‑Founder John Arnold joined Liz Hoffman and Rohan Goswami on Semafor’s Compound Interest for a conversation on a wide range of topics, including concerns around sports betting and prediction markets.
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Why This Work Matters
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Policy is Moving Faster Than the Evidence
Sports betting is generating new revenue and changing how people engage with gambling, but the evidence base has not kept pace with the scale of legalization. Despite widespread adoption, we still know too little about individual- and household-level outcomes, including how regulatory approaches and consumer protections influence behavior and well-being. In the absence of rigorous research, state and federal decision-makers must navigate high-stakes choices without a robust evidence base.
Prediction markets are reshaping sports wagering (and the evidence gap). Alongside traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets increasingly offer sports-related event contracts that function like sports betting but may be regulated differently. As these markets scale, consumer safeguards can vary across products and jurisdictions making rigorous, causal evidence essential for decision-makers designing durable guardrails.
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What We’re Doing
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Funding Rigorous, Causal Research
Through our Evidence & Evaluation work, we are supporting research that strengthens causal evidence so policymakers can better understand what works—and what does not—in the real world.
In July 2025, we launched a Request for Proposals to support rigorous, causal research on the impacts of legalized sports betting, with an emphasis on studies designed to produce actionable insights for policymakers, regulators, and advocates—especially at the state level, where frameworks are evolving quickly.
This RFP supports Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and rigorous Quasi-Experimental Designs (QEDs) to help build strong evidence on the impacts of different policy and regulatory choices.
In January 2026, we provided a $2 million grant to the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) to launch a Sports Betting Policy Hub. The hub is designed to help policymakers, researchers, and advocates respond to rapid expansion and growing evidence of related financial and health harms, particularly among young men.
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Tracking How Prediction Markets Intersect with Sports Betting Policy
As prediction markets list more sports-related event contracts, policymakers and regulators need clarity on how these products compare to state-regulated sports betting, and what that means for state authority, consumer safeguards, and market integrity. We are supporting work that helps decision-makers, aiming to build the evidence infrastructure to support policy.
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What's Next
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Funding Decisions Forthcoming
We expect to invest several million dollars in research funding in 2026, which will provide timely evidence on the social, behavioral, and financial impacts of legalized sports betting. We will announce funded research grants in the coming months, alongside ongoing work to help policymakers navigate emerging questions at the intersection of sports betting and prediction markets.
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