Resources
Causal Research on the Impacts of Legalized Sports Betting RFP
Awarded Research Grants
Arnold Ventures awarded approximately $2.6 million to support 12 research projects examining the impacts of legalized sports betting in the United States. Explore the funded projects below, organized by the four research priorities from the request for proposals.
Advancing Evidence on Consumer Behavior and Risk
Behavioral Insights (US) Inc.
Principal Investigator(s): Michael Hallsworth; Kirstie Paul
Timeline: 2026–2027
Scope: This project examines how people perceive the likelihood of winning "parlay" bets and how they react to "near misses", where a parlay bet fails by just one leg. It also tests whether targeted messages following “near misses” can interrupt play and influence real-time betting behavior among approximately 12,000 participants.
University of Wisconsin System
Principal Investigator(s): Scott Baker (University of Wisconsin System); Justin Balthrop (University of Nebraska–Lincoln); Kevin Pisciotta (University of Kansas); Mark Johnson (BYU Marriot School of Business); Jeff Dotson (Ohio State University Max M. Fisher College of Business)
Timeline: 2026–2028
Scope: This project examines how financial shocks and betting outcomes, including wins, losses, and promotional incentives, shape betting behavior over time. It analyzes within-person changes to understand how individuals respond dynamically to gambling experiences.
West Virginia University Foundation, Inc.
Principal Investigator(s): Brad Humphreys
Timeline: 2026–2029
Scope: This study investigates “loss-chasing” behavior in online sports betting markets following near misses and unexpected outcomes. It evaluates how these events influence gambling expenditures and risk-taking behavior.
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
Principal Investigator(s): Brett Hollenbeck; Poet Larsen; Uttara Ananthakrishnan, Ken Wilbur
Timeline: 2026–2028
Scope: This study evaluates how exposure to sports betting advertising affects consumer behavior, including app downloads and engagement. Using quasi-experimental methods, the research estimates causal impacts of advertising intensity on betting participation.
Understanding Financial and Household Impacts
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Principal Investigator(s): Jacob Goss (University of Wisconsin - Madison); Daniel Mangrum (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Timeline: 2026–2027
Scope: This quasi-experimental study examines how legalized sports betting affects credit card delinquency rates across states. It also analyzes spillover effects in neighboring states where sports betting remains illegal, providing insight into cross-border financial impacts.
University of New Hampshire (University System of New Hampshire)
Principal Investigator(s): Gorkem Turgut (G.T.) Ozer; Zhe Zhang (UC San Diego)
Timeline: 2026–2028
Scope: This study analyzes how gaining or losing access to legal sports betting through interstate migration affects individuals’ financial outcomes. It focuses on changes in credit health and financial distress as people move between states with different legal regimes.
Princeton University
Principal Investigator(s): Carl Gershenson (Princeton University); Seth Gershenson (American University School of Public Affairs); Erdal Tekin (American University School of Public Affairs)
Timeline: 2026–2028
Scope: This research examines the impact of legalized sports betting on housing and financial insecurity among renters. It evaluates outcomes such as eviction filings and foreclosure rates using quasi-experimental methods.
University of Texas at Austin
Principal Investigator(s): Mary Evans; Katherine Rittenhouse
Timeline: 2026–2027
Scope: This study analyzes how legalized sports betting influences family well-being, with a focus on marriage rates. It uses quasi-experimental methods to estimate how changes in gambling access affect household formation decisions.
Evaluating Public Health and Social Outcomes
University of Pennsylvania
Principal Investigator(s): David Powell
Timeline: 2026–2028
Scope: This project examines whether the legalization of sports betting is associated with changes in suicide rates across states. It uses a staggered difference-in-differences design to isolate causal effects over time.
Vanderbilt University Medical Center
Principal Investigator(s): Sarah Schutz (Vanderbilt University Medical Center); Lawrence Baker (RAND Corporation)
Timeline: 2026–2027
Scope: This research examines whether access to legalized online sports betting is associated with changes in mental health diagnoses, prescription rates, and care utilization.
Indiana University
Principal Investigator(s): Alberto Ortega; Coady Wing
Timeline: 2026–2029
Scope: This project evaluates how legalized sports betting affects behavioral health care spending and broader indicators of social well-being. It assesses whether expanded access to betting is associated with changes in treatment utilization and health-related expenditures.
Informing State Policy and Revenue Considerations
Urban Institute
Principal Investigator(s): Kassandra Martinchek; Lucy Dadayan
Timeline: 2026–2029
Scope: This study evaluates how legalized sports betting affects state tax revenues. It examines fiscal outcomes across jurisdictions to assess whether projected revenue gains materialize over time.
Archived Request for Proposals
The materials below describe the original funding opportunity, including the research priorities, eligibility requirements, and application process.
The Overview
In the years since the U.S. Supreme Court 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized sports betting, rapidly reshaping the consumer finance, behavioral health, and regulatory landscape. Participating states have also benefited from a significant new source of tax revenue, collecting more than $1.8 billion in 2023 alone, according to the Tax Foundation. Despite the scope and speed of legalization, little is known about the individual- and household-level financial, social, and behavioral impacts of legalized sports betting. We also know little about how regulation, enforcement, and consumer protections influence these outcomes. In the absence of rigorous research, state and federal decision-makers must navigate high-stakes choices without a robust evidence base.
The Opportunity
This RFP seeks to address that gap by funding rigorous, causal research that deepens our understanding of the financial, social, and behavioral impacts of legalized sports betting. We are interested in studies that produce actionable insights for policymakers, regulators, and advocates — particularly at the state level — where betting frameworks are rapidly evolving and evidence needs are acute. This RFP will support both Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and rigorous Quasi-Experimental Designs (QEDs).
As an important partner in this research, the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM), a nonpartisan organization devoted to evidence-based research, is working alongside Arnold Ventures to analyze proposals, research, and results. Working together, we can build on what we know today to more deeply understand the root causes of the problems and effectively address them through evidence-based solutions.
This RFP is Closed: Letters of interest (LOIs) were due by Monday, September 15, 2025.
Selection Criteria
Proposals will be evaluated based on the following criteria:
Criterion | Detail |
|---|---|
Policy Relevance | Why it matters: We believe research should inform actionable strategies and resource allocation, aligning with the priorities and pressing needs of decision-makers and communities. What we are looking for:
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Study Design | Why it matters: We support research that aims to accurately measure impact and ensure that conclusions drawn are valid and reliable using RCTs or QEDs. What we are looking for:
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