Causal Research on the Impacts of Legalized Sports…

Overview

Arnold Ventures (AV) is a philanthropy dedicated to improving the lives of all Americans through evidence-based policy solutions that maximize opportunity and minimize injustice. We focus on improving systems where outcomes are falling short, incentives are misaligned, and the time is right for change. By funding rigorous research, we strive to better understand the root causes of problems and build the evidence about what works to solve them. Using this research, we advocate for policy reforms at all levels of government and build durable, bipartisan coalitions to drive lasting change and impact.

The Opportunity

In the years since the U.S. Supreme Court 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized sports betting, rapidly reshaping the consumer finance, behavioral health, and regulatory landscape. Participating states have also benefited from a significant new source of tax revenue, collecting more than $1.8 billion in 2023 alone, according to the Tax Foundation. Despite the scope and speed of legalization, little is known about the individual- and household-level financial, social, and behavioral impacts of legalized sports betting. We also know little about how regulation, enforcement, and consumer protections influence these outcomes. In the absence of rigorous research, state and federal decision-makers must navigate high-stakes choices without a robust evidence base.

This RFP seeks to address that gap by funding rigorous, causal research that deepens our understanding of the financial, social, and behavioral impacts of legalized sports betting. We are interested in studies that produce actionable insights for policymakers, regulators, and advocates — particularly at the state level — where betting frameworks are rapidly evolving and evidence needs are acute. This RFP will support both Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) and rigorous Quasi-Experimental Designs (QEDs).

Selection Criteria

Proposals will be evaluated based on the following criteria:

Criterion

Detail

Policy Relevance

Why it matters:

We believe research should inform actionable strategies and resource allocation, aligning with the priorities and pressing needs of decision-makers and communities.

What we are looking for:

Research on a program, policy, or regulation in the United States

Clear description of how the research question is relevant to policymakers in the United States

Demonstration of how the project has the potential to inform or influence policy/practice at the state and/or federal level, along with discussion of available policy levers

Study Design

Why it matters:

We support research that aims to accurately measure impact and ensure that conclusions drawn are valid and reliable using RCTs or QEDs.

What we are looking for:

Clear articulation of the program, policy, or regulation being evaluated, the research question(s), the primary outcome(s) of interest, and duration of follow-up

Study design overview, including the proposed estimation strategy, plans to address threats to validity, necessary robustness checks, and if this is a prospective or retrospective study

Articulation of why the study design was selected and how it will protect against selection bias

Sample sizes for the primary outcome(s)

Data sources and plans to secure data sharing agreements (preferably using administrative data, wherever feasible)

Study timeline that outlines key steps in the project

How to Apply

We ask interested researchers to submit a letter of interest (LOI) for AV consideration (maximum of three pages) via our applicant portal. This RFP will remain open until September 15, 2025, and all LOIs must be submitted by that date. Applicants may use their own format, with single or double spacing, an 11-point font or larger, and one-inch margins. In addition to the LOI, please also share the following under the Optional Upload for Supporting Documents section on the portal (this will not count towards the LOI page limit):

Study team overview: Outline the project team in 1-2 pages, including an overview of roles and responsibilities for key project members. You will be asked to upload brief (1-3 pages) CVs of key members of the study team to the portal.

Budget request summary: Applicants should specify the amount of funding requested from AV, reflecting the project timeline and the study scope, and include an approximate project budget that is consistent with AV’s cost policy. While a formal budget is not required at this stage, applicants should provide detail on the anticipated drivers of project costs (e.g., personnel time, data acquisition, travel, and administrative costs).1

Applicants whose letters are reviewed favorably, based on the eligibility and selection criteria above, will be invited to submit a full proposal.

Timeline for Submission & Review:

Stage	Date
LOI Submission Deadline	9/15/25
Notification of Full Proposal Invitation	11/15/25
Full Proposal Submission Deadline	1/15/26
Notification of Awards	4/15/26
Grant Period Begins	5/15/26

You can find responses to frequently asked questions here. Please direct other questions about the selection criteria or application process to SportsBettingRFP@arnoldventures.org.

Studies that can inform policy might examine betting-related outcomes, compare regulatory approaches, or test interventions aimed at changing behavior. While we are open to a range of possible research questions, we offer a set of questions below to highlight areas of particular interest for this RFP:

Frequently Asked Questions

What specific study designs are eligible for funding under the Sports Betting RFP?

The RFP will provide funding to conduct randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental studies that generate causal evidence. Eligible designs may include: randomized controlled trials, natural experiments, regression discontinuity, difference-in-difference, continuous interrupted time series, and instrumental variable approaches. In general, we do not fund studies that rely solely on matching or selection on observables unless used in conjunction with other identification strategies.

How are applications evaluated?

Applications are reviewed by the Arnold Ventures team and external expert reviewers with research expertise in our policy areas of interest. Reviewers will follow the criteria outlined with the RFP, with a focus on policy relevance, rigor of proposed empirical strategy, implementation feasibility and the proposed budget.

Will questions beyond those listed in the RFP be considered?

Yes. While we will prioritize the questions explicitly outlined in the RFP, we welcome the submission of additional causal questions. All proposed questions will be evaluated for relevance, feasibility, and alignment with the objectives of the RFP.

Can we submit multiple letters of interest?

Yes, we welcome multiple research ideas. Please submit a separate letter of interest for each distinct project.

How long does your application process take from start to finish?

This varies from project to project. From receipt of letter of interest to the execution of a grant agreement, our process typically takes around 6 months.

Do I have to pre-register my study on the Open Science Framework? Can I use another platform, such as the American Economic Association or ICPSR pre-registry?

We are committed to prioritizing principles of open science to encourage research transparency and accessibility. Our team requires all grantees to pre-register studies on the Open Science Framework, but if you feel there is a compelling reason to use a different pre-registry, we’d be happy to discuss.

Can I meet with your team to discuss a potential research idea?

Unfortunately, due to the number of inquiries we receive, our team is unable to schedule a call or provide individual feedback at the letter of interest stage.

Do you fund studies outside the United States?

We only fund studies that focus on U.S. programs, policies and regulations. However, we can fund international researchers if the topic of their study focuses on a U.S. program, policy, or regulations.

Do my references/citations count as part of the three-page limit?

No, references/citations do not count as part of the three-page limit.

Is there a maximum budget?

There is no set maximum budget. We expect project costs to vary based on the complexity of the study, data collection methods, and overall scope of work. Budgets should be well-justified and aligned with the project’s goals and design. Reviewers will assess the proposed budget closely as part of the evaluation process. As a general reference, studies previously funded by AV have typically ranged from $200,000 to $400,000.

Is there a maximum period of performance?

There are no limits on period of performance, and we expect study duration to vary from project to project. The average period of performance for studies funded by AV is about 2-4 years.

What should be included in the budget?

You should specify the amount of funding requested from AV, reflecting the project timeline and the study scope, along with a brief budget narrative. The budget should include the anticipated drivers of project costs (e.g., personnel time, data acquisition, travel, and administrative costs), and indirect costs that are consistent with AV’s cost policy (linked in the RFP). If we invite a full proposal, we will share a detailed budget template.

Are for-profit institutions eligible to apply?

Yes, for-profit institutions are eligible for funding, though reporting requirements may differ if a grant is awarded.

Do PIs need to have conducted an RCT before to apply?

No! Our team hopes to encourage all researchers who may be interested to apply. We do encourage applicants to consider the inclusion of at least one project team member with prior experience conducting RCTs, who might provide advice in designing the study to avoid common challenges and pitfalls, or partnering with more experienced research teams.

Statement on Commitment to Assessing Impact on All Communities

AV’s mission includes maximizing opportunity and minimizing injustice. We encourage research projects that use inclusive research methods and frameworks, including assessments of whether policy and practice have a disproportionate impact on particular communities, whenever appropriate and possible.

Statement on Commitment to Transparency and Research Integrity

AV is committed to the principles of research transparency and integrity, as explained in our Guidelines for Investment in Research. As a condition of any grant award, we will ask awardees to pre-register the study on the Open Science Framework website. Prior to the commencement of the study, we will ask grantees to make public a copy of the research and analysis plan described in the proposal. In addition, we will ask grantees to make their datasets and related materials (e.g., de-identified data, programming/code, and output) publicly available if permitted through data sharing agreements.

Causal Research on the Impacts of Legalized Sports Betting RFP

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Overview

The Opportunity

Frequently Asked Questions

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